Kanshi ifintu ni Lungu Zoona

Yesterday the Patriotic Front (PF) candidate Mr Edgar Chagwa Lungu was sworn in as Zambia’s new president defeating a strong challenge from the United Party of National Development (UPND) candidate Hakainde Hichilema who was contesting his fifth presidential election. Despite a narrow margin of victory of about 100 000 votes out of a total of about 3.8 million votes cast, Mr Hichilema’s performance was actually down, the margin increasing from the narrower approximately 27 000 vote margin by which he lost the 2015 presidential by-election caused by the death in office of the PFs first president Michael Sata.

In the approximate eighteen months Mr Lungu has been in office he has faced challenging circumstances, some external and some brought on by his own actions and policies. The wider economic environment has not been favourable to the Zambian economy; the slowing of growth in China which drives the price for commodities has reduced the price of Zambia’s main export which is copper, the decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates also contributed to a fall in the value of the Kwacha and previous lack of planning by successive governments dating back to UNIP, has led to a power deficit and increasingly frequent instances of power cuts and load shedding. All of these factors have contributed to a slowdown in national economic growth. On a personal level Mr Lungu has been focussed on securing his own mandate and has logically postponed taking a number of difficult decisions. He has continued in the previous PF government’s commitment to infrastructure spending, increasingly financed by internal and external borrowing. The IMF says at the end of 2014 debt as a percentage of GDP stood at 24 percent compared to 15 percent in 2011. The increase in debt reflected issuance of Eurobonds in 2012 and 2014 at 3.0 and 3.8 percent of GDP [IMF country report 2015 ]. The borrowing increased the level of indebtedness to about 31 percent of GDP as of 2014  and has been used mainly to finance an ambitious infrastructure programme which has been stepped up under the PF administration.

Mr Lungu has also had some missteps during his time in office; raising presidential compensation was among his first acts in government, the reversal of the decision to remove fuel subsidies, a lack of communication with the electorate and international community, and a ten-fold increase in the declared assets of Mr Lungu in an eighteen-month period in office. All these contributed to negative perceptions of the PF administration on the highly active Zambian social media and blogosphere. And yet after all these missteps, a poorly performing economy and increasing prices of key commodities, Mr Hichilema managed to take a step backwards.

How did HH and the UPND fail to make the most of an incumbent government experiencing unfavourable economic indicators led by an opponent with significant weaknesses? It is said that incumbents lose elections, the PF government were determined not to lose the election. They exhibited none of the complacency of the Rupiah Banda/MMD administration that lost power to Michael Sata in 2011. Politics is a rough old game and the PF made full use of the power of incumbency. The Public Order Act was used to curtail opposition meetings, the executive was able to retain use of state facilities until three days before the vote and ZNBC lost any pretence of being a national broadcaster rather excelling in it’s true role as the mouthpiece of the government of the day. This is unfair behaviour but politics is the last place one should look when seeking examples of sportsmanship and fair treatment. The PF government as is their right, used all the levers available to them to retain power.

The PF also did a great job of shutting down previous open lines of attack by the opposition; temporary power was procured to reduce the impact of load shedding; the currency was stabilised against the dollar which reduced the pressure on imports in the run-up to the election. The message discipline of the PF was also very good, they consistently undermined the economic record of HH and the UPND by linking him to the disastrous privatisation of ZCCM the former state-owned mining conglomerate. The PF was also very smart in refusing to debate the opposition, denying them the platform and opportunity for the public to view the presidential aspirants on a level footing, cowardly? probably, politically astute? most definitely. There is also a very strong anti-Tonga sentiment that is working against the UPND/HH who are seen fairly or unfairly as a Southern/ Tonga dominated party. Educated and cosmopolitan Zambians have been heard to remark that, “there is no way I can vote for a Tonga” given that Zambia has never been led by a Tonga it is objectively baffling how the Tonga tribe gets such a bad rap. The Zambian electorate is very religious and subtle hints about HH and his commitment to sharing his wealth via a quite brilliant campaign slogan, “sonta epo wabomba”. Directly translated as “show us what you have done”, to a reasonable person that is ridiculous. It is not the job of the opposition to demonstrate the work that they have completed in order for them to be elected to higher office. The genius part of the slogan though is that the average working Zambian supports more than just the immediate nuclear family and HH as an immensely wealthy individual was being challenged to show the electorate who he had helped with his resources, forget the part about Christians doing their god works in private, was this unfair definitely but again this is part of the rough and tumble of politics.

If the UPND is honest with itself, it played a big role in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The fundamental aim of a political campaign is to distil the party programme into a simple memorable phrase that can be repeated ad infinitum until there is almost a sub-conscious association between the party, the candidates and its slogan. Think Bill Clinton’s “it’s the economy, stupid”, Tony Blair’s “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime”, the MMD’s “the hour has come” and even “sonta epo wabomba”. The UPND did not have this, their manifesto has a ten-point plan, all well-meaning and logical to the voter who has the internet connection and time to read what the party plans to achieve in office but I read them and within five minutes I couldn’t tell you what they were. In 2012 Zambia had an electrification rate of 22.1% and smartphone penetration stood at 3% in 2010 , I doubt much of the electorate had the opportunity to read the manifesto.  All of which points to the fact that the UPND did not display a significant understanding of the electorate, the majority of the ten-points in the UPND manifesto address the concerns of the urban elite the manifesto required explanation and discussion and I can bet there weren’t any ten-point plans on t-shirts in Lusaka. Contrast this with the PF which effectively said to the electorate ‘we have been building roads, hospitals and other infrastructure and will continue to do so’ in a pithy three-word slogan and in a local language to boot, all subtly messaging we, the PF, understand the man in the street we don’t need ten-point plans available online. This election like other elections recently that Twitter and Facebook are not countries they are self-selecting slices of countries and of people who largely share the same views, background and biases.

All of which points to a poorly organised campaign with poor messaging by the UPND, the presidential count was much closer than the parliamentary count. According to the most recent unofficial estimates the PF has unofficially approximately 100 of the 156 MPs giving them a super-majority in parliament. The abuse of the Public Order Act no doubt didn’t help the UPND organise at a constituency level but the MP tally should have been much, much closer given how tight the presidential vote ended up being. The big gamble taken by HH and the UPND was to accept disgruntled ex-PF and MMD members and give them prominent roles in the hope that they would dent the PF’s performance in their Northern, Luapula and Copperbelt strongholds, anyone familiar with the local political scene can list chapter and verse the negatives of the UPND running mate selection, the former MMD president and others. The newcomers were given prominent positions shunting aside long-time UPND members, most people apart from political obsessives are too busy leading their lives to pay attention to the daily machinations of politicians. The willingness to accept any individual that would help get the UPND into power indicated a willingness to do whatever was necessary to win, principles notwithstanding. This may have played a role in the relatively poor performance in the urban centres where the economic hardships were being most keenly felt. The UPND ticket made the contrast less clear between them and the PF ticket and in the end it seems that voters preferred the known over the unknown.

As of now there is a petition being put forward, which will only please the lawyers on both sides, by the UPND contesting the result and given the history of previous electoral appeals it will be time-consuming and will not achieve anything of note. The UPND and HH need to have some serious introspection to drill down to the reason they have failed to convince the electorate.

For the country the way forward is not clear, the fissures opened during this election highlighted by the violence and increasing tribalism will take a concerted leadership effort to heal. For the next five years Zambia has in effect returned to one-party state the PF will now be able to carry forward its agenda unrestrained by the need to win the argument in parliament. This is what the majority has voted for and their wish should be respected, hopefully the incoming Lungu administration will not forget that though they won they have to govern in the interests of the whole country including the 49% who did not vote for president Lungu. The global economic forecast increasingly looks gloomy and the IMF is waiting in the wings to administer some tough medicine. I hope for everyone who loves Zambia that the electoral results give us a government capable of navigating the coming stormy waters and hopefully some good luck in the coming years because it looks like we will need it.