Friday 4 November 2016

Work, work, work, work

This wont be an analysis of the lyrical stylings of Riri, but unless you are lucky enough to have access to capital most adults earn money selling their labour, ideas or experience. Unless you are fortunate enough to have a world class talent and live in a country where that talent could earn you a living the prospects for most of us are increasingly looking grim.

The economist Tyler Cowen analyses labour as existing in six dimensions:
  • backs - human mechanical strength lifting, pushing, pulling
  • Fingers - intricate mechanical tasks requiring dexterity printing, weaving, knitting, butchery, 
  • Humans controlling machines doing routine  tasks drilling, driving 
  • Smiles - humans giving other humans pleasure service sector jobs
  • Creative ideas - writing, art, entertainment 
The first dimension of labour reduced in importance due to the domestication of the horse and cow and the first industrial revolution 
Reduced the requirement of human labour for the second. Historically Prof Cowen says the fourth, fifth and sixth increased in value as capital was deployed  to accomplish the first, second and third dimensions of labour. 
The development of robots and artificial intelligence means that the third and fourth dimensions of labour are more effectively performed by machines leaving humans only with the fifth and sixth dimensions of labour where humans hold a distinct advantage. 
Most people earn a living by selling their labour in one of the six dimensions Prof Cowen identifies. What happens when a lot of labour is competing for only a few jobs, the price of labour falls and he early signs of this can be witnessed by the stagnant wages across much of the world. 
What does this mean for Zambia? Most of Zambia's foreign exchange earnings are derived from mining. The mining sector is also a significant revenue raising sector for government in the form of royalties and the Pay As You Earn paid by mine employees.  The mining industry is also defined by low-margins, increasing mechanisation and is in one of the low points of the industry's periodic cycles. On a global scale I don't see another period of explosive growth such as the one seen between 2000-2008 driven by China. The Chinese economy is entering a middle-age of steady but unremarkable growth.  The other large global population and economic centres are unlikely to deliver the growth seen in China at the beginning of the century. Which all makes for a grim outlook for Zambia unless we make more use of the best of our best national resource. Zambia is blessed with a young and energetic population with a median age of 17.2. The national priority should be setting up our young people with an opportunity to make full use of their talents. 

A song of fire and zzzzzzz

I'm a big, big or as Donald Trump would say yuuuge fan of Game of Thrones (thanks Dare for the heads up) and I decided, whilst waiting for Season 7 The Ladies in Charge to read the books. 

I hit up the Amazon store and me being the completist that I am purchased all the books George R R Martin wrote. Initially the spot the difference between the book and the series was fun Theon is a much more shady character in the book better foreshadowing his turn in later seasons. Mr Martin also appears to reveal a great fondness for descriptions of underage...well let's not go there it's a fantasy and he is more than entitled to artistic license. 

In the TV series Ned was portrayed as noble and the only honest man in a den of snakes. In the book nope for me he came across as a simpleton who failed to read the signs and realise despite repeated hints that not everyone was playing by Marquess of Quensverry rules. For the first time ever, I found myself flipping through Ned's sections to get to the characters I enjoyed in the book. Sansa was also such a wet character in the book and it was difficult to see what the actual motivation was to cast her sister to the side for the seemingly perfect Prince Joffrey, we all know how that turned out. 

I'm guessing this is a testament to the skill of the actors and scriptwriters, they've polished on the books narrative structure and rounded out a somewhat bog standard fantasy story and made it sing. 

I was a firm believer in reading the written version to fully appreciate the author's intent. In his case the Game of Thrones show runners have carried the torch Mr Martin lit and ran with it. I'm confessing I won't be reading the rest of the series. Now if only the Kindle had a returns policy.